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Robert Shapiro (1935—) is a professor of chemistry at New York University.
2. We shall expand our biosphere beyond the Earth through human colonization of our own solar system and eventually of others.
If we value human life and recognize it as the product of billions of years of evolution, then we will want to safeguard it from extinction and secure it for the indefinite future.
The history of life on this planet has been punctuated by a series of catastrophes that have destroyed many of the species on it. A lesser disaster might spare us physically but destroy the basis of our technological civilization and our ability to proceed in that direction again. Even if we avoid the crises that have been abundant in the past, we will face one of much greater magnitude when our Sun runs out of fuel a few billion years from now.
As long as our species, and the others on which we depend, is confined to the surface of a single planet, we remain highly vulnerable. We will gain some insurance as soon as we establish a self-sustaining base somewhere off the Earth. We will be much safer yet when some of us have established footholds in other solar systems. This expansion off our crowded planet will also afford us many opportunities to explore what human existence can be and what we may choose to become.
Robert Shapiro, Planetary Dreams: The Quest to Discover Life Beyond Earth (New York: John Wiley & Sons, 1999), 26–27.
In terms of our own future, it is hard to project the next century or millennium, let alone the next 2 billion years. But rest seems unlikely. For those of us who value the continued survival of the human race and its descendants, long-term activity is essential.
There is no reason to believe that the extinction cycles have ended. Comets should continue to arrive, and the other causes of catastrophes are likely to appear again.
Ibid., 50–51.
The pessimists, who I have termed the Sour Lemon School, reach similar conclusions from different assumptions. They see the universe as a barren, hostile place in which life has been produced on one planet by an unlikely turn of random events. Sooner or later, this anomaly will be erased by another random catastrophe. Prescriptions as to how we should behave in the interim may differ in detail, but the gloom surrounding our situation saps the energy from any proposed long-term effort.
Ibid., 175.
But we remain very vulnerable to extinction as long as we are confined to this single planet. Meteorite impacts, nuclear wars, or other catastrophes of types that we have not yet recognized could snuff out advanced life on Earth. Even in the absence of sudden disasters, inevitable climate changes and the deterioration of our Sun will eventually make Earth uninhabitable. If we value the experience of being human for its own sake, then we will want to safeguard what we have gained by extending our presence into the larger universe. We will also be very curious to learn what else evolution may have produced, and ultimately see if there are other cultures whose experience can enrich our own.
Ibid., 175–176.
Both the history of life on Earth and of human culture on this planet have been marked by numerous setbacks and disasters (for example, the great Permian extinction of 250 million years ago and the decline of civilization in Western Europe during the Dark Ages). These collapses have been counterbalanced by spurts forward, such as the Cambrian explosion and the recent development of a global technological society.
Ibid., 249.
The Apollo expeditions represented a remarkable expansion of the range of our biosphere. At that time, it seemed possible that this foothold would be enlarged immediately. As we noted in Chapter 1, Arthur C. Clarke had predicted “numerous inhabitants” and a childbirth on the Moon by the end of the twentieth century. Instead, the initial three-year advance was followed by a twenty-five-year reversal, which still continues. Conceivably, the Apollo landings could represent a highwater mark, like Pickett’s charge at the Battle of Gettysburg, whose further advance would never be resumed.
Ibid., 249.
A nuclear war, an asteroid collision, or some other catastrophe could reduce our global civilization here to a level from which it did not have the time to recover before longer-term effects made our planet uninhabitable. A future of this type might be palatable for the Sour Lemon School, but I think that we can do much better.
Ibid., 249.
If we regain our energy and continue our expansion into space, then we will explore our solar system, at first with robots and then through human bases and colonies. Some observers have argued, of course, that we should settle for robot exploration alone. There is no need for humans to venture farther into space. Possibly, they may prevail, and our future will again follow the Sour Lemon line.
Even if we should colonize the solar system, we can expect the same arguments to come up again concerning further expansion. Return-trip travel within our solar system will be possible for adventurous humans, just as a trip to China was possible for Marco Polo and a sea voyage around the globe for some of Magellan’s crew. To voyage to other star systems would require new technology and the willingness of humans to embark on expeditions in which only their descendants would arrive. We might achieve this, or we might once again have the option of settling for robot exploration to satisfy our curiosity, before we turn inward.
Ibid., 249–250.
In particular, the events on this planet that produced humans from self-organizing chemicals over the past 4 billion years represent a precious achievement. If we value the experience of human existence, and look forward to its continuation and improvement into the indefinite future, then we do not want to place the accomplishments of 4 billion years of evolution at risk.
Ibid., 259.
But we stand at risk when our biosphere is confined to the surface of our home planet. An asteroid may descend with little warning and wreak havoc with our climate and civilization. Other natural catastrophes that remain unknown to us may have caused some of the earlier extinctions, and they may recur. Finally, there is the threat of nuclear war, which has receded recently but certainly remains as a future possibility. Hopefully, we will escape all of these dangers, but we need an insurance policy.
Ibid., 259.
Imagine that a secure, self-sustaining base existed separate from this planet. It supported a population of humans, together with those advanced species that we have come to depend on. This modern Noah’s Ark, unlike its predecessor, would also store the scientific and cultural heritage of our civilization. Computers would preserve most of this bulk, but perhaps some authentic manuscripts and works of art could find their way over as well. If some disaster swept over our home planet, this base could serve as a resource to reseed our civilization on Earth, once the conditions permitted it again.
The Moon would seem to be a logical place for such a base, though Mars or an artificial colony in space may have virtues as alternatives. The closeness of the Moon and its mineral resources give it obvious advantages. Above that, we have already invested our energy and our emotions in that world, and the construction of the base would bring those efforts to some good conclusion. The primary purpose of Moon base would be to ensure human survival, but we could undoubtedly find other good uses for it while awaiting a doomsday that, we hope, never arrives. I am sure that experts will provide a long list of suggestions, including observatories, tourism, and its use as a staging area for interplanetary missions. I hope that the search for alien artifacts has a place on that agenda.
Ibid., 259–260.
At the end of the remarkable 1936 film Things to Come, a rocket was set to be launched that would carry the first human beings around the Moon. The launching pad resembled the later Apollo ones remarkably, but H. G. Wells, who wrote the screenplay, was less accurate about the date. He chose the year 2036, not having anticipated that the event would take place as early as 1968, but that is not the point. The rocket missed destruction narrowly as it took off. No technical error was to blame, as in the case of the space shuttle Challenger. Rather, a televised agitator had incited a mob by demanding “Who needs progress?” and urged them to destroy the rocket. That outcome was avoided only when the controllers launched the spacecraft ahead of time.
Ibid., 264.
4. Encourage efforts, such as those in the biosphere projects in Arizona, to design self-sustaining human habitats. Undertake feasibility studies of the relative merits of placing survival bases on the Moon, Mars, and elsewhere. Start the process of assembling databases that preserve the scientific and cultural heritage of our civilization. (In Asimov’s novels, this collection was represented by The Encyclopedia Galactica. With computer storage, we can be much more efficient.)
Ibid., 271–272.
This book started with Neil Armstrong’s well-remembered words from the surface of the Moon. I will close it with a dream in which his successor on that world (or on Mars) expresses the same sentiments, “One giant step for mankind,” but carries along with it a commitment to back up that ideal. The following additional words would be very welcome: “This time we stay.”
Ibid., 273.
A number of different scenarios can be envisaged which would eliminate electrical power, disrupt or destroy networks, eliminate key personnel or otherwise prevent access to our technological and cultural heritage by survivors. The immense legacy of our civilization would be partly or wholly lost. Such catastrophes have been listed by many writers—they include bio terrorism and natural plagues, nuclear war, asteroid and comet collision, massive and unexpected climate change, famine associated with civil disorders and social collapse and others.
Robert Shapiro, “The World Question Center 2003,” Edge, 2003, http://www.edge.org/q2003/q03_shapiro.html.
None of these events is probable on its own, nor even taken together do they represent the most likely course for the future. But [if] we make no provision for these possibilities, then we as a civilization are taking the position of an author who does not choose to back up the novel he is typing on his word processor, or the home owner who carries no insurance and does not store his valuables in a secure cache far from his residence. Our scientific and cultural heritage is abundant, and the threats to it are numerous—it is time to back up civilization. To do this we will need to establish secure sanctuaries (think of the monasteries of the Middle Ages) that preserve and update copies of the vital records and articles needed for the conduct of our society. As their interpretation and reinstallation after a catastrophe would require hands-on human expertise, we would need staffed settlements, rather than buried time capsules. Such settlements would need to be remote enough to be immune from the varied array of disasters that might afflict humanity, but close enough to remain in direct contact, and to bring aid when appropriate.
Ibid.
Although a network of Biosphere-like settlements in scattered locations on Earth might be robust enough to weather most difficulties, there is a safer bastion which would provide inspiration and a variety of types of technological spin-off, in addition to its prime function of backing up civilization on Earth. The construction of a lunar base dedicated to that purpose would provide a superb goal for our newly-born century and millennium. It would also provide needed purpose and continuation to one of the great human achievements of your lifetime; the Apollo Program.
Ibid.
I have sketched out a goal that extends in time far beyond [the] few years possible for one administration. The costs will require many years of investment, with private contributions and international cooperation highly desirable. The goals however could be embraced by you, and planning commenced, at only moderate cost at the present time. What greater enhancements of the concepts of Homeland Security and the war against terrorism could there be, than to extend their protection to the preservation of civilization itself, for the indefinite future.
Ibid.
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